Thirty years after the fall of the USSR, the situation in Eastern Europe is once again at the centre of the world's attention, highlighting the weakness of US imperialism and its European allies. If in 1991 the collapse of the Stalinist regimes and the restoration of capitalism in the so-called Soviet bloc resulted in an unqualified triumph for Washington, three decades later China's spectacular economic and military advances and Russia's recovery as a major power have profoundly changed international relations.
In the space of a few months, we have witnessed a fierce confrontation between Poland and Belarus, with refugees as the main victims of this battle. The hypocrisy of the European Union in justifying racist laws and anti-immigration discourse has been particularly repugnant, as we explained in our last statement. Now, the situation has become even tenser in light of the escalation in the Ukraine-Russia standoff that is involving the mobilisation of large numbers of troops on the border.
Of course, this is not to say that open war between Ukraine and Russia is a certainty. A warlike confrontation between the two countries would open up a scenario of unpredictable consequences. In this new "cold war" it is important to consider the interests at stake and not be dazzled by appearances. The US is using the reactionary Ukrainian regime, as it has done in the past, to accelerate its fight against Russia and to issue a serious warning to China. But its ambitions to bring Kiev into NATO and make Ukraine its spearhead against Putin's regime have been met with a strong response.
Russia bursts onto the world stage
For a considerable part of the Stalinist left, the current conflict is reduced to mere geopolitical considerations. Putin is presented as the successor of the USSR, and is portrayed as a nationalist willing to resist the Western onslaught who deserves unconditional and uncritical support. But the reality is far from this evocative and reductionist image. Putin's regime responds to the interests of the Russian capitalist oligarchy, which on the ruins of nationalised property, on the looting of the heritage of the USSR and the robbery of the Soviet people, rose to the head of a system of savage capitalism.
Putin is no progressive factor, nor does he lead a government in the interests of the workers and oppressed of the world. Today's capitalist Russia, with the two-headed eagle of the restored tsarist flag, is an imperialist power that manoeuvres on the international scene to secure the privileges and business of the ruling class and a plutocracy linked to the military-industrial complex.
That said, it would be shamefully naïve to swallow the Western propaganda that presents the US and the EU as the guarantors of democracy and freedom in Ukraine against Russia's expansionist ambitions. No. The struggle currently being waged on the Ukrainian-Russian border is part of a much broader struggle for global hegemony.
An inaugural Russian-African summit took place in 2019, at which contracts worth 11.3 billion euros were signed with 40 countries on the continent, and its military presence is so extensive that it has already provoked hysterical denunciation from the CIA.
In recent years Russia's advance has been indisputable. The war in Georgia was a turning point for the Kremlin, and the annexation of Crimea in 2014 was a clear demonstration of this change. Since then, military interventions in Libya and Syria have underlined that Russia has returned to the international stage with renewed strength. Its intervention in world affairs has been increasing, hand in hand with China. In Africa it has conquered positions in country after country: in October 2019 a inaugural Russian-African summit took place at which contracts worth 11.3 billion euros were signed with forty countries on the continent, and its military presence is so extensive that it has already provoked hysterical denunciation from the CIA and the State Department (countries such as Mali have established military assistance agreements with Russia to confront the advance of jihadist militias).
In recent months, Russia has conducted joint military exercises with China, Belarus, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Abkhazia, Armenia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Egypt, South Ossetia and for the first time also with ASEAN, which includes ten Southeast Asian countries. The Putin regime has succeeded in signing a military-technical cooperation agreement with India, a staunch US ally, until 2031. India will manufacture 500,000 Russian AK-203 assault rifles and conduct military exercises with Russia. Currently, Russia's investments in India amount to some $38 billion and bilateral trade has increased by 38 per cent in the recent period. Moreover, despite the US veto, India finally bought Russia's S-400 surface-to-air missiles.
In Europe, the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which will allow gas to be sent from Russia to Germany without passing through Ukraine, has been another major point of friction between Western and Russian imperialism. Not only will it bring great benefits to Russia, but this agreement will also be a blow to Ukraine, which will be deprived of billions of dollars in transit tariffs which it will no longer collect. For the time being, Germany has put the brakes on the pipeline's implementation in the face of pressure from the United States, which has been crying foul over Western Europe's extreme dependence on Russian gas. However, the financial interests of the big European monopolies in securing the flow of this essential raw material, and of the German government in supplying its domestic market, will outweigh Washington's demands.
Troop movements in an increasingly critical scenario
In 2021 the AUKUS, the defence treaty between the UK, Australia and the USA in the Pacific, was signed in a clear provocation towards China. In addition, US imperialism and its NATO partners have carried out the biggest military manoeuvres in the Black Sea since the dissolution of the USSR. They have sent warships, flown over Russian airspace and deployed thousands of soldiers in the Baltic countries and Poland.
For their part, Russia and China, far from backing down, have responded forcefully. In October they conducted their first joint maritime patrol in Pacific waters. The operation, which included anti-submarine exercises and live-fire drills, involved ten warships that spent seven days in the Sea of Japan, the western Pacific and the East China Sea.
Moreover, in the new arms race that is developing over hypersonic weapons, China and Russia have not only conducted successful tests, but Russia is now ready to arm itself.
The Ukrainian government has stationed almost 10,000 troops on the Russian border, but Putin has responded by mobilising tens of thousands of troops.
It is in this context that we have to place the escalation of threats that the US and the EU are launching against Russia. The Ukrainian government, with Western backing, has stationed almost 10,000 troops on the Russian border, threatening to invade the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Moreover, at the last NATO-Russia meeting, American leaders insisted on integrating Ukraine into the Western military alliance. The Russian Foreign Ministry's response has been immediate, threatening to deploy missiles stationed in Venezuela and Cuba. One can imagine how the White House would have reacted if China or Russia were to reach military agreements with Canada or Mexico.
Ukraine, fascists and the Donbas war
In 2013, US imperialism manoeuvred for a regime change in Ukraine with its usual intrigues. Taking advantage of popular discontent against the capitalist regime of the pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych, it financed and armed far-right paramilitary groups in the Euromaidan movement. After weeks of extreme violence, the US and the EU succeeded in ousting Yanukovych and replacing him with a hand-picked businessman, Petro Poroshenko, who opened the country's doors wide to the IMF and its adjustment plans. Living standards collapsed and democratic rights were trampled underfoot with the help of fascist gangs embedded in the Ukrainian police and army.
One of the consequences of imperialism's actions in 2013 was the war in Donbas.
According to the UN, the military conflict has resulted in more than 13,000 dead, more than 30,000 wounded, 1.4 million displaced and 3.4 million people dependent for their livelihood on some form of humanitarian aid. The overwhelming majority of the population of Donetsk and Luhansk is ethnic Russian, as is the case in Crimea. These two regions concentrate most of Ukraine's industry and mining, and it was precisely the large working class in this region that was decisive in defeating the Euromaidan and fascist groups in the region. The result of the popular uprising was the birth of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic.
But the absence of revolutionary leadership and the erroneous position of the Ukrainian Communist Party, which had its main base of support in this region, preferring to collaborate with the oligarchs of the Donbas instead of supporting the revolutionary struggle of the workers with a genuinely communist and internationalist programme, left the way open to all kinds of pro-Russian nationalist elements, with anti-Semitic or even fascist ideas, who only seek to defend their privileges. Despite the rhetoric used by the governments of these "people's republics", they have become mere cliques obedient to the interests of the big Russian capital.
Imperialist hypocrisy
Eight years after the Euromaidan events, Viktor Yanukovych's gang of oligarchs was replaced by another and the looting of Ukraine continued. In October 2019, TV comedian Volodymir Zelensky won the elections with a campaign that was further removed from the patriotic hysteria and nationalism of his predecessor, promising economic growth, democracy and improved living conditions. But only two years have passed and dissatisfaction with Zelinsky is enormous.
The war in the Donbas region, far from ending, has intensified and each year drains billions of euros from a badly weakened economy. According to some sources, it absorbs more than 20 per cent of Ukraine's GDP. Another cause of discontent is the criminal handling of the pandemic. According to official figures, more than 89,000 people have died, but some sources put the figure at over 120,000. More than two million people have been infected and only 21% of the population has been vaccinated. Resistance to vaccination, as in most countries, is promoted by the extreme right and in the Ukrainian case also by the Orthodox clergy.
By October, Zelenski's approval rating had fallen to 24.7 per cent. This is precisely one of the factors behind the radical shift in both his domestic and foreign policy, resorting like his predecessor to the most reactionary patriotism and nationalism. Last February he announced his intention to take back the Crimean peninsula, which was militarily and politically annexed by Russia after a referendum in 2014. Since then, he has done everything possible to torpedo compliance with the Minsk Agreements, which sanctioned self-rule for the two territories that make up the Donbas region, the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. Nor has he respected any of the ceasefires and has continued military attacks and terrorist acts against the population of eastern Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government, like the Polish government in its confrontation with Belarus, has the support and approval of Washington and the EU, which have gone along with its every decision.
The Ukrainian government, like the Polish government in its confrontation with Belarus, has the support and approval of Washington and the EU, which have gone along with their every decision. The double standards of NATO's partners have been evident in all their actions: they accuse Russia of planning an invasion when they have been arming the Ukrainian army to the teeth.
Nor can the Biden administration's belligerent attitude and constant provocations towards Russia be understood without taking into account the deep crisis of American capitalism. A weakened economy that subsists on brutal exploitation of its labour force, an overvalued stock market and the huge injections of money provided by the Federal Reserve. After the fiasco of Donald Trump's presidency, Joe Biden and his government are now trying to regain lost world hegemony by resorting to militarism and the threat of war. The fact that he has approved the highest military budget in history, 777.7 billion dollars, more than three times that of China, is incontrovertible proof.
A war between Ukraine and Russia is unlikely to happen now. The carnage it would unleash, not only among the combatant troops but also among the civilian population, would open up a political crisis of incalculable consequences in both countries. It would also directly affect European stability, triggering a major anti-war movement at a time of severe social and economic crisis. But just because this escalation does not result in a savage war, like the one that has ravaged Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan, does not mean that the threat of large-scale armed conflict has disappeared.
The struggle of the working class across borders, with a class, communist and internationalist programme, is the only way to prevent further imperialist massacres and put an end to capitalist chaos. Understanding what is at stake and not falling into the trap of bourgeois propaganda is the first step.
