Results that show clearly what works and what doesn't in the fight against the far-right
The electoral victory of this complete reactionary far-right extremist is a very serious warning to the working class and youth all over the world. We cannot trivialise it, nor can we dismiss it with superficial analyses which fail to go to the heart of its enormous consequences. In the immediate term, the electoral advance of the global far right will benefit from Trump's success in the world's leading capitalist power.
Many predicted the end of Trump, his isolation, his supposed lack of support among the US ruling class and even within his party. But it was not only the outlook of the liberal press and the legion of paid social democratic commentators who were confident of a Kamala Harris comeback that failed miserably. Other types of charlatans, who for some strange reason continue to call themselves ‘Marxist theorists’, have been utterly incapable of seriously interpreting the powerful social and political forces driving Trumpism, and their surprise at these results has also been morbid.
The press that appears to be more ‘serious’ insists on Trump's anti-establishment character in order to offer an explanation. There is also no shortage of people in the left wing camp who establish their positions by reading this press and, being unable to think for themselves, repeat the same mantras like broken records. It is very easy to make a headline with a quick formula to gobble up. It is much more difficult to give a solid materialistic characterisation because one must then get out of this state of mental laziness.
This triumph demonstrates, first of all, the depth of the crisis of US capitalism, its decline on the world stage and the failures it is reaping as an imperialist power, facts that have unleashed a brutal political and social polarisation sweeping the country from north to south and coast to coast. Secondly, the resounding fiasco of the neo-liberal and bellicose policies of the democrats who, as we have pointed out in numerous previous statements, are the representatives of a degenerate elite acting as a strategic accomplice in the Zionist genocide against the Palestinian people. And this defeat is also the defeat of a reformist left organised around Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who with their abandonment of raising an independent left alternative and their support for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have paved the way for Trumpism to penetrate sections of the working class.
Trump has won by a clear margin with historic results. According to the official count at the time of writing this statement, he won 72,741,495 votes (50.9%) to Kamala Harris's 68,079,359 votes (47.6%). He wins the majority in the Senate and almost certainly in the House of Representatives, and the control of the most important state institutions. And all this in an election that has registered the second highest turnout in US history, only behind the 2020 election.
The so-called ‘swing states’ - key states in deciding presidential victory - have voted overwhelmingly for MAGA (Make America Great Again) and this includes the advance of the Trumpist vote among sectors in which it had not managed to gain much traction until now. The Latino vote, the youth vote, the women's vote and the votes of the working class less devastated by impoverishment. That is to say, it has gone far beyond the borders of the rural middle classes and the most demoralised sectors of working class families hit by the social and economic crisis, the most active and noisy part of the Trumpist social base, and has gained growing support among working class people fed up with the ‘progressive’ demagogy and the capitalist policies of the Democrats.
The driving forces of Trumpism
We have to tell it like it is, not project an idyllic image. Trump represents the anti-establishment, in the same way that Javier Milei, Marie Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Santiago Abascal or the leaders of the German or Austrian far right do. They are far-right demagogues who use their criticism of the institutions of bourgeois democracy and traditional politicians to spread their pro-business, racist, chauvinist and avowedly anti-communist agenda.
These are by no means marginal elements, nor outsiders. They are an essential part of the current political ecosystem and receive obvious support from important sections of the ruling class in their respective countries. To confuse matters and not to denounce these elements as declared enemies of the working class or worse to consider that they reflect an ‘anti-establishment radicalisation’ that can be exploited is simply to throw the lessons of history overboard.
The German Nazis and the Italian Fascists in the 1930s also had a sophisticated anti-establishment programme, engaging in social demagogy and gathering the support of sectors disenchanted with the system. They began as small groups, but as the crisis of capitalism unfolded and the left made profound mistakes, they broadened their social base and won the backing of the bourgeoisies of their countries.
The great Marxists who analysed the phenomenon of the extreme right and fascism at that time were not satisfied with a superficial reading, but offered a class characterisation and a programme of action to combat this lethal threat. They explained the trap of their demagogy, and pointed them out as the party of counter-revolutionary hopelessness ready to do a thorough job of smashing the workers' movement and its organisations when the ruling class had no other way out.
Naturally, we are not suggesting that the prospect of a fascist dictatorship can be imposed in the short term in the US. That is out of the question, because it would provoke a revolutionary movement among the tens and tens of millions of workers and youth who have indeed demonstrated unequivocally against Trumpism, not only at the ballot box, but especially on the streets. But our obligation is to see the dialectical development of these events, and to flee from any mechanical and reductionist vision. The danger is there, and there is no point in sugar-coating Trump. There is a turn to the right among broad layers of the petty bourgeoisie and demoralised sections of the workers. And it is a question of responding to this dangerous evolution of events with action and a forceful programme.
Donald Trump regains the presidency of the USA after passing through the White House and implementing measures against the working class and democratic freedoms, racism and attacks on women's rights, which also filled the pockets of the big corporations. And he has achieved historic results after having promoted the assault on the Capitol by thousands of armed fascists, and having been tried and convicted by the courts.
‘It's a political victory,’ the mogul said at his press conference. And it indeed is. The Trump who appeared exultant on the podium is now stronger than he was eight years ago, he has turned the Republican Party into a docile organisation, destroying the few rivals who tried to challenge him. Behind him stands a mass movement that has moved from the ballot box to the streets and direct action, and vice versa, and has skilfully exploited the disaster of the Democratic Administration to penetrate new sectors.
Data from numerous studies explain its penetration among middle-income earners, where support for Trump is consolidating and growing strongly, and especially among the lowest incomes, unlike the Democrats, who are only growing among the highest incomes.[1]
It is the same dynamic that we observe among the extreme right all over the world. And it is logical. Its progress derives from a combination of factors; the retreat of Western capitalism and the emergence of new powers contesting world supremacy, the need of the petty bourgeoisie to expand the exploitation of immigrant labour in order to accumulate more wealth and sustain their standard of living, and the desperation of impoverished sections of workers completely abandoned by the social structures of the state. And in the face of this, an impotent reformist left that appears as the defender of a decaying and rotting capitalist democracy.
To consider that Trump does not have solid support among the ruling class, and that the bourgeoisie as a bloc is against him because he is uncontrollable and has an isolationist agenda is absurd. Trump is part of the capitalist class, he has strong links and support within its ranks, and he responds to the interests of those sectors that call for a frontal battle against the working class, against the enemy within, and to prepare the US for a prolonged economic war against China and its allies. Obviously, the chances of success of this strategy are highly questionable.
But back to a central idea. Trump is not an outcast from US politics, and the bourgeoisie does not view him with horror. To claim this is to offer a simplistic and clearly false view. Recent reports have pointed to the main donors to the Trump campaign, around 50 billionaires who have been very active in offering their resources to Trump and his programme. As a leading Spanish business daily publishes:
‘Elon Musk, the richest man in the world donated more than 118 million dollars to America PAC, a super political action committee supporting Trump (...) John Paulson, the subprime king who earned 20 billion dollars between 2007 and 2008. A loyal supporter of Donald Trump, the Republican candidate has named Paulson as his possible Treasury Secretary should he win the election (...) Tim Mellon has been another major donor, with $150 million to Trump's super PAC, Make America Great Again Inc, almost 45% of its total funding. Aged 82, he is part of one of the most venerable banking dynasties in the US, though he is the least known in Trump's orbit (...)
Miriam Adelson, the 78-year-old widow of casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, has donated more than $100 million to the pro-Trump America Pac. Owner of the Las Vegas Sands casino and the Las Vegas Review Journal and Israel Hayom newspapers, she is also a majority owner of the Dallas Mavericks basketball team. Her fortune exceeds $34 billion, according to Forbes. A friend of Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, Adelson has compared Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 to the Holocaust (...)
Liz and Dick Uihlein, the founders of shipping company Uline have donated nearly $70 million to their pro-Trump Restoration Pac and an additional $10 million to Maga Inc (...) Diane Hendricks is considered the richest self-made woman in the US. She owns the Wisconsin-based building materials conglomerate ABC Supply (...) Kelcy Warren, the CEO of Energy Transfer Partners, Kelcy Warren is a Dallas, Texas-based energy titan with a $7.1 billion fortune (...)
Millionaires who have also endorsed the Republican candidate include Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management; Bernie Marcus, the 95-year-old co-founder of the home improvement retailer The Home Depot, who has a net worth of over $7.2 billion; Woody Johnson, owner of the NY Jets football team, with a net worth of $8.7 billion; and Andy Beal, founder and chairman of Beal Finance, who has a fortune of $13.1 billion."[2]
Wall Street's reception to Donald Trump's victory showed no sign of distrust or opposition. On the contrary, stock markets soared to record highs and the dollar recorded its biggest rise since 2020:
‘On Wall Street, the market was quick to applaud the new political scenario. The Dow Jones closed up 3.57%, while the Nasdaq gained 2.95% and the S&P 500 2.53%, all three indices reaching new highs. This time it is not the technology sector that is leading the gains. Steel, automobile companies and investment banking led the gains with rises of between 15.14% and 10.77%. In other words, the businesses that have benefited most from the protectionist policy and deregulation proposed by the Trump administration. Within the Dow Jones, the biggest gains were made by the banks Goldman Sachs (13.1%) and JP Morgan (11.54%) and the world manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, Caterpillar (8.74%)...’ [3]
The Disaster of the Democratic Administration and the Decline of US Imperialism
Let's be clear. All the promises and propaganda that the Democrats used to turn the election around four years ago have turned out to be a complete fraud. Defending public health care and education, fighting racism and police brutality, cancelling student debt, protecting union, women's and LGBT rights, demands like $15 an hour... What happened to all that?
Under the Biden Administration there has been significant retreat on each and every one of the issues raised. Record deportations of immigrants, loss of democratic rights, strikes banned by the government, runaway inflation that has eaten into wages, and social cuts that have fed the never-ending economic appropriations for imperialist interventions such as the war in Ukraine or support for Zionist genocide in Gaza.
The beneficiaries of these policies have been numerous, yes, but they do not live in working class neighbourhoods or the suburbs, but on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley. The big tech companies, pharmaceutical companies, energy companies, arms companies and the big banks have made a killing with Biden and Harris at the helm of the Oval Office.
This is revealed by their gains since the previous elections and their meteoric rise in the S&P500 index: graphics card and microchip manufacturer Nvidia increased its share price by 986% in these four years, SuperMicro by 1,046%, Meta by 103%, Microsoft by 100%, pipeline operator Targa Resources by 954.2%, Marathon Oil by 594%, pharmaceutical company Elli Lilly by 517.9% and military solutions company Axon Enterprise by 323%, to give just a few examples.
It is precisely on this basis that Donald Trump has been able to raise and strengthen his demagogy, accusing them of lying, of destroying the middle class and of destroying the living conditions of millions of working people by spending a formidable amount of public money on war.
The pro-war agenda of the Democratic Administration has been key in the break with the Democratic Party of the youth and a significant part of the American working class. The unconditional support for Zelenski, the genocidal Netanyahu and the harsh police repression of the pro-Palestinian movement has crossed a red line that many potential blue voters have not forgiven. How is it possible to fight the extreme right by supporting its biggest and most bellicose representative, Benjamin Netanyahu?
These are the main points that explain the failure of Kamala Harris. Not even the most powerful propaganda campaign has been able to cover up her commitment to this right-wing, imperialist agenda. Her constant winks in the final stretch of the campaign to Republican voters, promising to include them in her Cabinet and boasting of public support from them, have finally shown the enormous limitations of the Democratic candidacy to mobilise the massive left-wing vote.
But an analysis of the electoral disaster would be incomplete if we did not include representatives of the new Democratic left such as Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Acting as the dam to contain the mobilisation and Biden's security key to maintain social peace and give himself a more progressive facade, both figures and a good part of the DSA leadership have covered themselves with glory. Having demonstrated their complete inability to confront the Democratic apparatus and break with a policy of subordination, they have the opportunism, hours after Trump's victory, to accuse the Biden Administration of having abandoned the working class, as Bernie Sanders has publicly done. Truly unfortunate for the senator from Vermont.
They have caved in to the millionaires who run the Democratic Party and have put themselves at their service to block any response on the street to their policies and the advance of the far right. This is the result. The ‘institutional political blockades’ that social democracy talks about are nothing more than agreements and alliances with the ‘democratic right’, the ‘reasonable right’ or the ‘decent businessmen’. This has been the recipe, once again a failure, of the new American left. It is time to take note and learn for the future.
Prospects for the Trump Administration: class struggle, instability and new crises
It is impossible to read the results of these elections correctly without taking into account the general context in which they were held. The struggle between US imperialism and China for supremacy, and who controls the markets, the strategic raw materials, the global production and supply chains, is shaping international relations and obviously also the domestic situation in both countries.
It is a fact that contradictions and divisions run through the US ruling class, but there is one thing they agree on: not to back down on the world chessboard and to tighten the screws as much as possible on the working class in their own country as a weapon in this war and as a tool to further fatten their millionaire profits. Evidently they are divided on the tactics to achieve this.
Donald Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine in a matter of days, and he has also been in favour of closing the conflict in the Middle East. But words are one thing, real policy is another. The intervention in Ukraine is a fundamentally American affair, a war provoked from Washington in order not to lose decisive influence in the Old Continent.
If it all ends with an unappealable triumph for Russia, and therefore for China, the outcome will directly affect the Trump Administration. The alley in which the New York billionaire finds himself is just as complex as the one in which Biden found himself.
If Trump forces Zelenski to accept a peace with Russia at the cost of giving up part of the territory, it would be a new recognition of the weakness of Western imperialism in the world, but not closing this conflict will lead to bigger and bigger problems, and maintain a black hole through which huge resources are squandered and which has already caused a major crisis in key countries. The fact that Germany has become a factor of political destabilisation in Europe, and that the current SPD government is on the verge of resignation, is due to this Washington-driven war.
On the other hand, it is also unclear what will happen in the Middle East. Netanyahu has been very happy about the mogul's victory and, to celebrate in advance, he dismissed his defence minister in favour of an even more Nazi one. Trump's support for this genocidal man is beyond doubt, as is his interest in maintaining a strategic foothold in the region, but the risk of further escalation leading to regional war is not exactly an argument for making America stronger.
The central point is that Trump is not a ‘man of peace’, but the president of a power in organic decline and engaged in a fight to death with a colossus like China.
Trump cannot escape this reality. That is what led him to declare trade war on Beijing in his previous presidency, with very negative results for US interests. If he tries major protectionist moves, such as the promised tariffs on Chinese cars and European imports, he will bring new realignments around the two big rivals. And this will have profound effects on the class struggle within the US.
Trump has promised to seal the border and make the largest deportation of immigrants in history, and in so doing bring about a new ‘golden age’ for the US with lower taxes and prosperity for entrepreneurs. But can this programme succeed in improving the lives of working-class people who have been brutally impoverished in recent years? Trumpism's answer to the crisis of the system is no alternative for the American masses and it is not in his power to reverse such a crisis. It will only make it worse with added suffering.
Trump's victory is the victory of the iron fist against the left, against the working class and youth, against their mobilisation and organisation. It is the sledgehammer that stokes the racist divisions within our class to make us weaker, of the war against the enemy within to win the global battle by putting the bill on the backs of the oppressed. But it will not be so easy for it to impose its policies.
The experience of the American working class in these years has been savage, hard, but also very useful. The radicalisation and polarisation towards the far right has been paralleled by the growth of a polarisation also towards the far left, the formation of new structures, organisations and movements born from below and which have acquired tremendous firepower.
A young, radicalised, fresh and unburdened trade union movement has made an extraordinary breakthrough. The Trump administration will have to face this and fierce battles on the field of class struggle. The abandonment of leaders like Sanders or AOC has left the road strewn with lessons. The movement against genocide in Gaza has risen without them, and in spite of them.
The potential for building a class and revolutionary alternative for youth and workers in the US is unquestionable. Drawing the lessons from Trump's electoral triumph is essential for the rearmament of the left, for a strategy on the offensive. There is no time or strength to lose.
Footnotes:
[1] Who voted for Trump? His supporters by age, gender, race and income.
[2] Expansion, 6 November 2024. The millionaires who stand to gain from Trump's victory
[3] Market reaction: US stock markets soar to all-time highs and the dollar marks its biggest rise since 2020
