Bashar al-Assad's regime has collapsed like a house of cards in the space of a few days. The very rapid advance of the fundamentalist group the Levant Liberation Organisation (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA) has not only exposed the rottenness of the Al-Assad government and its lack of social support, but above all it has shown the determination of US imperialism, the Zionist Israeli entity and its ally in Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to respond with maximum force to Russia, Iran and, consequently, China.
Political control of the Middle East, an area of crucial importance in the battle for hegemony, puts the struggle between the imperialist blocs on a new plane. To begin with, most serious political observers do not hide their surprise at this sudden move. All those who saw Russia and Iran as allies of the cause of the workers and oppressed of the world have also been taught a lesson. The substitution of serious class analysis by geopolitical reasoning has once again played a dirty trick on them. The decomposition of the regime in Damascus and the fact that its sponsors have let it fall in this way puts many things in place.
Firstly, that Putin, like Xi Jinping, has his own political and economic agenda, which above all protects the interests of the bourgeoisie and imperialist monopolies in their respective countries. That Putin is a reactionary anti-communist Great Russian is evidence that he has masked himself at the beck and call of Washington's imperial aggression. But once again it is evident that the Russian oligarchy does not stand on the barricade of the struggle for socialism, quite the contrary. Similarly, all those who have idealised the mullahs' regime, which resorts to “anti-imperialist” demagogy but represses the Iranian workers with an iron fist for the benefit of a predatory oligarchy, must give way to the evidence.
Secondly, and very importantly. This development shows that US imperialism will spare no effort to wage a fierce battle to maintain its position as the first superpower. Washington's world order, born out of the decomposition of the USSR, has suffered severe setbacks in recent years. Both the rise of China, which has completely changed the global balance of power, exposing the economic and social decline of the US and the EU, and the US military defeats in Iraq, Afghanistan and, most especially, Ukraine, have pushed its ruling class to a very clear strategy: to spread chaos and instability in order to reassert its position and warn its adversaries that it will not give in.
It is no coincidence that the takeover of Syria by Salafist militias, until recently labelled ‘terrorists’ by the West, took place immediately after Israel reached a truce with the Lebanese government. At that moment, all forces were activated for a lightning operation, which counted in its favour on the weakening of the Hezbollah militias, hard hit by the Zionists, and on the opportunity for the Turkish government, a NATOist and faithful ally in Washington's essential affairs, to strike a decisive blow against Iran and gain an advantageous position in Syria, a priority area for its regional imperialist aspirations and where a significant part of the Kurdish resistance is grouped.
In the last few days alone, the Israeli army has unleashed more than 300 military operations against Syria's arsenal and defences, raiding more than 15 kilometres of its southern border while its fighter planes have flown hundreds of hours to bomb as many targets as it wants. The blow unloaded by US imperialism and its allies in the area has a very clear addressee and places an even bigger question mark on an already explosive area.
The Great Game in Syria
The Western media, faithful propagandists of the EU governments and the American master, have not hesitated to describe the HTS fighters as ‘insurgents’ or ‘rebels’. In reality, they are jihadist forces from ISIS and Al-Nusra, an offshoot of Al-Qaeda in Syria, fascist fundamentalists with blood on their hands who have for years sought to establish a fundamentalist dictatorship based on Sharia law.
In these days of fighting they have unleashed terror against the Shia population, attacked Christian communities and, of course, imposed their morality of rabid priests against women. Good. Well, this pack, now presented as liberators, was only a short time ago described by their western mentors as terrorist organisations. Such are the imperialists in this part of the world: if they serve their interests, they quickly transform themselves from bearded terrorists into lovers of liberal democracy!
Western cynicism knows no bounds. The same people who fund and arm to the teeth the neo-Nazi Zionist supremacists who have perpetrated an atrocious genocide against the Palestinian people, were the ones who created Osama Bin Laden and the Taliban in Afghanistan to fight the Soviets, and are using these militias in Syria to secure their objectives. We cannot forget this truth.
It is very important to underline that nothing that is happening in Syria is a continuation of the so-called Arab First, that formidable revolutionary crisis that in 2011 brought the dictatorships of the Arab world to the ropes, with popular uprisings in country after country in which the working class and the youth played a leading role.
That revolutionary wave toppled dictators and put Western imperialism, the IMF and the Arab bourgeoisies in an absolutely critical situation. Unfortunately, that revolution lacked a communist and internationalist leadership equal to the challenge it posed, and could have been derailed and crushed in blood and fire by US imperialism and the local oligarchies who, again relying on fundamentalist forces and those of Israel, provoked chaos and fragmentation in Libya, a brutally destructive reactionary war in Syria, or military juntas and dictatorships as in the cases of Egypt and Tunisia.
The Al-Assad regime has nothing to do with socialism as some would have it. Russia actually sustained the Al-Assad clique because Syria has been a traditional, and fundamental, base for its interests in the Middle East, but they have dropped it when they have become aware of the impossibility of sustaining the military onslaught of Washington's and Israel's agents at a time when their efforts are focused on consolidating their territorial gains in Ukraine. They are now negotiating against the clock with the new factions dominating the country, including the HTS fundamentalists, to preserve their military bases and ensure that their interests are not completely undermined. But it is not easy to predict what will happen and whether they will succeed.
One thing has become clear. The so-called ‘axis of resistance’, which some on the left glorified as a revolutionary alternative to Western imperialism, has proved powerless to stop the Zionist genocide in Gaza, to prevent Israeli intervention in Lebanon and the military weakening of Hezbollah, or to sustain a key government for them like the Syrian one.
Perhaps the fact that China and Russia continue to maintain diplomatic and trade relations with Israel, and have not made any significant moves to impose economic or oil supply embargoes on the Zionist entity in Tel Aviv or made a strong appeal to the Arab peoples to rise up against their governments and their oligarchies, is a pretty clear sign that their interests are not those of emancipation and national and social liberation, but those set by the agenda of their economic and geostrategic interests. In short, their objectives as imperialist powers are not to stimulate class struggle and encourage revolution.
China's penetration of what was once a space full of secure allies for Washington is obviously behind these moves. The Beijing-sponsored ‘reconciliation’ between Saudi Arabia and Iran was a major blow. Riyadh was not only the decisive US ally in the Arab world during the 20th century, but also became a key part of its economic order with the establishment of the ‘petrodollar’.
The fact that the Saudi monarchy is rebelling against Washington in OPEC and following Russia's lead, or that it has become a strategic partner of China by signing historic agreements to supply oil to Beijing and that this trade is paid for in yuan, is too much to swallow. All this, placed in a context of US military defeats in Iraq, which only served to strengthen the regime of the ayatollahs by generating serious complications for the Gulf monarchies, and especially the disorderly and terrified flight of US troops from Kabul, revealed the weakness of US imperialism and its unreliability as a power.
The best defence is a good attack
The accelerating loss of US influence in the Middle East, compounded by the disaster it faces in Ukraine after investing hundreds of billions of dollars, is what motivated US imperialism's decision to allow the Hamas operation of 7 October. An incursion which, as The New York Times and the Israeli media have revealed, was known in detail by the Zionist secret services and the CIA, but which made it easier for Netanyahu to launch his atrocious genocide in Gaza and justify it with the hoax of the supposed ‘right to self-defence’ of a colonial power that has been occupying the Palestinian territories and committing all kinds of crimes for decades.
The militaristic drift of the US and Tel Aviv does not need to be explained again. Everything Netanyahu and his supremacist allies in the government do would be impossible without the approval of the US administration, as has become clear. Washington has the blood of the Palestinian people on its hands, and nothing that is happening in Syria can be explained without it. The window of opportunity that has presented itself for US imperialism has been fully exploited. And in this dynamic, the Zionist forces encouraging ethnic cleansing and ‘Greater Israel’ are feeling confident and determined.
While they are taking great care not to provoke open war with Iran, which would spell disaster for the world economy, they have devised a strategy to strike at all its footholds. And so far, it must be said, they have succeeded. First Hamas, then Hezbollah and now the Syrian regime.
Both the US and Israel were deeply involved in the Syrian civil war, supporting various factions, including ISIS fundamentalists. As former Scottish diplomat Craig Murray notes in his recent article The End of Pluralism in the Middle East: ‘Almost a decade ago there was open testimony in the US Congress that, up to that point, more than $500 million had been spent on assistance to Syrian rebel forces, and the Israelis have been openly providing medical and other services to the jihadists and effective air support.[1]’[2
The other linchpin of this intervention has been Turkey, a historic US ally and NATO member, which has funded and armed HTS fundamentalists and other factions for years, effectively administering the regions of northern Syria where these groups maintained control. It is clear that Turkey did not embark on an operation of this scale without designing it in detail with the US. Not to mention that Ankara's trade relations with Tel Aviv have been strengthened despite the Zionist genocide in Gaza and Erdogan's demagogy.
Turkey has asserted its role as a rising regional power. While manoeuvring on the international stage according to its immediate interests, for example by providing Putin with channels to evade Western sanctions, something that allows Ankara to boost its economy at a time of difficulties, it has remained within NATO and has not broken its historical ties with US imperialism.
Erdogan, who faces growing domestic discontent and fared very badly in the last municipal elections - in which the Republican People's Party (CHP) won a resounding victory over the Turkish president's AKP - has seen an opportunity to divert attention from his domestic problems and achieve two long-cherished goals: expelling the four million Syrian refugees from his territory and striking a military blow against the Kurdish communities in Syria and, consequently, against the PKK in Turkey. All of this is wrapped up in the most despicable Turkish nationalism.
It is also clear that the overthrow of al-Assad is a major factor in the negotiations that will be opened sooner rather than later to end the war in Ukraine. Although Trump demagogically proclaims that this is ‘not America's fight’, Syria is a key player not only because of its natural resources or strategic position, but also because it was a major ally of Russia and provided important military infrastructure for its interventions in Africa.
It is also no coincidence that, after this coup, Trump has asked both Moscow and Beijing for a ceasefire in Ukraine. US imperialism's conditions for such a negotiation, although still very difficult, have improved somewhat after these events.
This political breakthrough by US imperialism and its allies will have consequences, although obviously it is utopian to think that the situation can soon stabilise and everything will go smoothly. At the moment the Syrian fundamentalists are undergoing a major image transformation, to make them appear to world public opinion as ‘moderate people’ who are capable of leading the country towards a new stage of peace. But in reality what is being plotted is the territorial division of Syria and its dispossession by the powers that have brought about this change.
In the face of war and chaos, fight for the Socialist Federation of the Middle East!
The battle raging in the Middle East, which in little more than a year has resulted in a brutal genocide against the Palestinian people and the fall of a key ally of Russia, Iran and China, shows the fierce nature of the struggle for global hegemony.
The US has managed to strike a significant blow and shows that Beijing's road to the top will not be a smooth one. China has sought to rely on its economic might to establish a new balance of power in the Middle East, but the US will not allow this penetration to be ‘quiet’. Washington will fight fiercely and, as we can see, will not hesitate to sow destruction in the region.
In this strategy of chaos, Israel's role is crucial.
Bloomberg, the US financial advisory company, through the think tank American Enterprise Institute, published a rather explicit assessment of the events in Syria: ‘This is why Israel is such a vital ally for the US: because its victories are critical defeats for America's enemies’.
Netanyahu's Nazi-Zionist government emerges strengthened by the fall of Assad, which is obviously terrible news for the Palestinian and Lebanese people. After this, Israel will not stop here. The dream of ‘Greater Israel’, this supremacist aspiration of Zionist fanatics, is clearly in tune with US strategic interests in the Middle East.
Al-Assad has fallen, but for Israel maintaining the initiative is the best guarantee of dealing with the inevitable uncertainty that is opening up in the short term and taking advantage of the weakness of its enemies to advance its objectives. The new area Netanyahu controls in the Golan Heights is rich in water and mineral resources.
Since the beginning of the genocide in Gaza, Israel has struck serious blows that have weakened the military capabilities of Hamas and Hizbollah. While it is true that Israel found it difficult to advance in Lebanon and suffered many more casualties than in Gaza, reflected in the reluctance of more reservists to enlist in the IDF, the events in Syria further weaken Hizbollah. The truce reached is precarious and could break down at any moment.
All this said, the Middle East remains a very complicated landscape for Washington. They used to have solid allies, toppled governments and put in their puppets. But in the current world situation, with the correlation of forces between the powers having undergone profound changes, it is very difficult to do so. Western imperialism is losing a lot of influence in Latin America, Africa, Asia... Stabilising the situation will not be easy.
The different Syrian factions have very diverse and contradictory interests, and US imperialism does not have strong and loyal allies among them to secure its long-term interests. Right now there is no clear replacement for the Assad regime, and Syria could be thrown into a new spiral of sectarian violence and power struggles between the different militias, which Erdogan will do his best to influence. We cannot forget that this is a war-torn country, with millions of refugees, a crippling humanitarian crisis and a destroyed economy and infrastructure.
Despite this victory in Syria, the US is reaping major defeats around the globe, such as the recent failed coup in South Korea and the general dynamics of the war in Ukraine. Just as Biden had to manage the disaster in Afghanistan, Trump will be forced to do the same in Ukraine. While the new president constantly talks about focusing on the ‘enemy within’ at home, the needs of the US ruling class will drive him to an aggressive foreign policy.
We live in a time of sharpening inter-imperialist struggle. All the world's major military and political conflicts are interrelated. The re-sharing of the world and the establishment of a new world order can only happen through war and the most ruthless violence, including that based on nuclear weapons. China knows that its economic fats are not enough to establish itself as an undisputed world superpower, which is why in ten years it has increased its military spending by 60 per cent. Although still far behind the US, the trend is clear.
The Middle East is a testing ground for the aggressiveness of the confrontation between the great world and regional powers, with shifting alliances and a fragile balance.
Capitalism, in its current senile imperialist phase, is pushing the peoples of the Middle East into the deepest barbarism. There is no way out under the capitalist and imperialist order. That is why the emancipation of the peoples oppressed by the militarist boot of the West, and by the corrupt and servile Arab bourgeoisies, cannot come from the hand of other powers which, although without a legacy of terrible slaughter, only serve the economic and political interests of their monopolies and capitalist oligarchies.
The example of the Kurdish formations in Syria is clear. The idea that by allying with the US they could shake off the oppressive yoke of the Al-Assad regime and resist the Turkish offensive has proved to be the most fallacious of chimeras. No, that is not the way.
The Palestinian people, the Lebanese people, the Syrian masses and the masses of the whole Middle East need a new leadership, a new banner. The protection of the reactionary regime of the mullahs, of the capitalists of Moscow or Beijing is not the solution, but part of the problem. The programme of internationalist socialism must be raised again, cleansing it of the deformations it has suffered in these decades, breaking with the class collaboration that the Arab left has practised, recognising the failure of the strategy of subordinating itself to the fundamentalist factions on the grounds that they have the weapons.
The masses of the Middle East have demonstrated their enormous commitment to the Palestinian cause, their courage and heroism in the struggle against Zionism, taking up arms and making all the necessary sacrifices. But it takes a correct policy to win, and that policy is the policy of socialist revolution, the policy of mass struggle, the policy of overthrowing the Zionist entity and the Arab governments complicit with imperialism. The Socialist Federation of the Middle East must be the goal of this titanic struggle, because it is the only way out of this orgy of destruction and suffering.
