The liberation of the Palestinian people and the struggle for socialism are inseparable
After almost a year and a half of genocide in Gaza, a ceasefire has finally been reached between Israel and Hamas. The barbarity unleashed by Zionism, with the full support of the US and the EU, is absolutely indescribable: 70,000 dead, including those lying under the rubble, and which could reach 186,000 if we include those who died from hunger, cold, infections and injuries according to The Lancet . 16% of the population!
The horror of this holocaust is rounded off by tens of thousands of wounded and mutilated, many of them children; 100,000 tons of bombs that have destroyed 90% of Gaza's infrastructure and buildings, massively contaminated the land and water; and the use of hunger as a weapon of war, following the example of the Nazis.
After such a catastrophe, it is natural for the Gazan population to breathe a sigh of relief with the ceasefire and to celebrate the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners from the terrifying Israeli prisons where they have been savagely tortured for years, and even more so after October 7.
The Palestinian people have demonstrated and continue to demonstrate unparalleled dignity and resilience. Despite having reduced northern Gaza to ashes and rubble, and despite the provocations of the Zionists not to return to their homes, hundreds of thousands are determined to live on what has always been their land.
But as we will explain, it would be a mistake to delude ourselves into thinking that this terrible barbarity is close to ending. Despite the heroic resistance of the Palestinian people, who have fought the colonialist occupier and its Western accomplices for decades, and who have been a true reference for oppressed peoples around the world, it is necessary to make a serious analysis of the momentous events of this past year. The worst thing we can do is to put a blindfold on and deny the facts.
Victory or defeat?
To suggest that the ceasefire means Israel has been defeated, that Netanyahu has not achieved any of his goals, or that we are witnessing a Hamas victory, as various organisations and groups have written, may sound very good, but it does not correspond to reality, nor will it help the struggle for the liberation of the Palestinian people.
Many of these analyses are reminiscent of others made at critical historical moments, which led these same organisations to claim that Margaret Thatcher had failed against the British miners in their strike of 1984/85, that the collapse of the USSR under Gorbachev did not mean the end of the workers' state or the restoration of capitalism, or that in South Africa a capitalist regime could never be stabilised with a black bourgeoisie. These types of approaches are the negation of Marxism and always lead to the same disaster: confusing the advances of the counter-revolution with revolution or some substitute that is palatable for a militancy that is considered stupid and poorly educated. Tawdry idealism instead of dialectical materialism.
Certainly, the State of Israel, racist and colonialist, which emulates Nazi Germany or apartheid South Africa, has not been able now, as it was not in the past, to exterminate the Palestinian people or expel them outside its borders, and with its cruelty it has done nothing but sow the seeds of new rebellions and more resistance.
However, although this is true and evident, the Zionist regime, hand in hand with US imperialism, has dealt a severe blow in Gaza and the West Bank, in Lebanon and Syria, achieving, in the short term, some of its strategic objectives. So much so that Trump, already a tenant of the White House, filled with pride by this advance, has aligned himself with the most supremacist Zionist ministers, openly proposing a complete ethnic cleansing, and expelling 1.5 million Gazans to Egypt and Jordan.
Gaza has been completely devastated, and despite the truce, it will continue to be the largest concentration camp in the world, with the complicity of Western imperialism and the passivity of the so-called international community. The West Bank is experiencing an upsurge in Zionist violence, both from the Israeli army and from fascist phalanxes of settlers, who have spread terror by advancing their annexation of Palestinian territory.
Hezbollah has been hit hard in Lebanon, losing hundreds of cadres from its chain of command, forced to retreat north of the Litani River in favor of the Lebanese army, and accepting a new president for the country, General Michel Aoun, who will act as a proconsul for American imperialism.
And finally, Assad's Syria, the supposed bastion of the so-called Axis of Resistance, has collapsed in days. Control is now in the hands of the HTS jihadist militias financed by Turkey, the Gulf monarchies and US imperialism, and Israeli troops are occupying Syrian territory beyond the Golan Heights, after destroying its military defences.
To think that these events are not in line with the objectives that Tel Aviv and its Western sponsors have been cherishing for years is simply to bury one's head in the sand.
It is necessary to understand the interconnectedness of all these events and the magnitude of the changes that have taken place if we are to draw the lessons necessary to continue the battle for the complete liberation of the Palestinian people and the struggle for a Socialist Federation of the Middle East. Our task is not to distort reality, but to face it in the face in order to transform it. This has always been the attitude of revolutionary Marxism.
A ceasefire tailored to Netanyahu and American imperialism
In politics, there are rarely coincidences. As we pointed out in our first statement after October 7, the Hamas attack was well known to the Mossad and the CIA. A border like Gaza, one of the most militarized on the planet, with cutting-edge technology that detects any kind of movement, could not be attacked without Israeli and American intelligence being alerted beforehand. Hamas' plan was prepared for more than a year and, as revealed by the New York Times and Israeli media, was well known to Washington and Tel Aviv. They knew it and let it happen, in order to have the political justification to deliver a brutal response and try to redesign the map of the Middle East.
American imperialism, after constant defeats and setbacks in Iraq and Afghanistan, faced with a humiliating failure in Ukraine despite all the arrogant fuss of Joe Biden against Russia, needed to act. And it has done so! Today, after 15 months of genocide, it is clear that there was a roadmap that has been completed based on the current situation, the progress of the Israeli military offensive, and the lack of a forceful response from Iran, China or Russia. And this is the reason why the Democratic Administration, with the support of Trump, has not stopped giving unconditional support to its Zionist “aircraft carrier”.
The ceasefire signed by Israel and Hamas, which, as many analysts say, is practically the same as the one negotiated eight months ago, has come to fruition just now for very powerful reasons. Eight months ago the conflict had not spread to Lebanon, and Hezbollah retained its operational and military capabilities intact; eight months ago the Al-Assad regime still maintained, although we now know only superficially, control of Syria. Eight months later the change is momentous for Syria and Lebanon, and the mullahs' regime in Iran, the main enemy of Israel and the US in the region, and a strategic ally of the bloc led by China and Russia, has suffered a very serious blow. These facts undoubtedly explain why Netanyahu, Biden and Trump have decided to close the ceasefire right now.
Trump wanted an agreement before taking office as president. Not only to further embarrass Biden and the Democrats, but also for geostrategic reasons, in order to continue along the path, he opened himself with the Abraham Accords, which meant the reestablishment of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Now he is trying to deepen this path, but with Saudi Arabia, the key oil monarchy in the region, trying to regain the influence lost in the face of the powerful penetration of China. Hence, one of the incentives for the ceasefire —unofficially— is the future establishment of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Although this may help American imperialism, it will not easily solve its problems in the region, given the powerful commercial relationship established between Riyadh and Beijing.
Trump and American imperialism wanted this truce, and Netanyahu was of the same opinion.[1] After more than a year of massacres in Gaza, of intervention in Lebanon, and after a successful incursion into Syria, it is also evident that the Israeli economy is facing serious difficulties, with soaring public spending and deficits, with numerous bankruptcies of companies resulting from the recruitment of their workers, and with the collapse of sectors such as tourism, construction and agriculture, due to the lack of labour following the restrictions on Palestinian workers.
At the same time, and despite the shift towards the far right in Israeli society, which largely supports the genocide in Gaza, army recruitment rates were falling and public opinion, as various polls have shown, was overwhelmingly in favour of a ceasefire that would allow the hostages to be brought back. Although Zionist propaganda has worked and internal opposition to the Palestinian massacre has been small, it is not easy to keep a society in this tension indefinitely.
Netanyahu, who has shown great political survival skills, also needed it. His advisers in the government, and also in Washington, think that the truce could bring him good results, in the event of having to call early elections, if he appears to be the architect of the return of the hostages after having dealt such a harsh blow to Hamas and Hezbollah. That his pro-Nazi ministers raise their voices and even leave the executive, as the fascist Ben Gvir has done, who has already indicated that he will continue to give him his parliamentary support, does not worry much a Netanyahu who in a year of genocide has completely paralyzed the opposition, militarized society and is now resuming with greater force his authoritarian judicial reform.[2]
That said, the bottom line is that when US imperialism decided it was time to stop, the Zionist state could not refuse. A palpable demonstration of how this barbarity would have been impossible, as we have not ceased to point out, without the full military, financial and diplomatic support of the US, Biden and the Democrats, who have their hands stained with Palestinian blood on the same level as the Zionist criminals. And the same can be said of the EU.
Regarding the ceasefire, the Zionist state itself, with the blessing of the US, has already indicated that it reserves the right to restart the aggression against Gaza when it deems it appropriate. Just as it is doing with the ceasefire in Lebanon.
As for the second phase of the agreement, which would begin on March 2, it still needs to be negotiated and ratified by the Netanyahu Cabinet,[3] including the establishment of a security zone on the border. A buffer zone that Israel has been designing with the complete destruction of border towns and neighbourhoods so that they cannot be rebuilt, and which could cover up to 30% of the territory of Gaza.
At the same time, the withdrawal of the Israel Defence Forces from the Philadelphia corridor (the Egyptian-Gaza border) and Netzarim (which divides the north and south of the Strip) will have to be negotiated, with the deployment of private American contractors being considered in the latter case. And all this while we are witnessing a scorched earth policy in the north of Gaza, where the fascist militias of the settlers want to establish settlements and do not stop their provocations and murders against the Palestinian population trying to return.[4]
Another fact that reveals how this ceasefire is tailor-made for the Zionists is the brutal intervention in the West Bank by the Israeli military, which among other criminal acts has assaulted the Jenin refugee camp with blood and fire, also counting on the repugnant collaboration of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) and its police forces, in the repression of Palestinian fighters and combatants.[5] Trump, in his undisguised enthusiasm for what he considers a triumph of his main ally, has already promised Netanyahu the recognition of the illegal settlements of settlers in the West Bank.
The PA, Arab governments and the reconstruction business
The other side of this terrible genocide, and of this ceasefire, is the role of the corrupt Arab governments, both the Gulf monarchies, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and the Egyptian and Jordanian dictatorships. All of them have been participants in these negotiations, and all of them are looking at the business that can be brought to them by the cleaning and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, which will also fill the pockets of the bureaucrats of the corrupt PA.
The opening of the Rafah crossing, and the reestablishment of international aid and private trade, will be done under Egyptian supervision, but with the involvement of the PA. PA Deputy Minister of Civil Affairs Ayman Qandil has already moved to the area for supervision. As the Israeli daily Haaretz notes: “Egyptian companies associated with or owned by military intelligence will operate the aid route and undertake early reconstruction tasks, including clearing war debris, repairing damaged roads, building temporary housing and restoring essential infrastructure such as water and electricity.”[6]
A business financed by the Gulf monarchies, the EU and American imperialism, and in which the PA and Gazan business elites linked to Hamas will also participate. As the cited article notes: “The Sons of Sinai company, owned by Bedouin businessman Ibrahim al-Arjani, who holds a concession from Egypt’s military intelligence, was responsible for operating and coordinating the transfer of aid, as well as the entry and exit of Gazans before and during the war, up to the Rafah crossing. The company faced harsh criticism from Gazans, who were required to pay thousands of dollars in exchange for being allowed to travel and leave the Strip. However, on Friday, the heads of Gaza’s great families and tribes issued a letter in defence of the company, expressing their support for any Egyptian effort to rebuild Gaza. They also expressed their deep appreciation for Egypt’s role since the beginning of the assault on Gaza, including the operation of the Sons of Sinai company.”[7]
The other central player will be Qatar, where much of Hamas's leadership is exiled and which has been a major financier of the organisation and its government in Gaza. Qatar is already organising a donors' conference to also pilot the reconstruction and the lucrative benefits that will entail for a well-placed minority in the right positions.
The next issue to be discussed and resolved will be who will govern Gaza from now on. Of course, the PA has already stated that it is ready to resume civilian rule in Gaza, where it will act, as it already does in the West Bank, as a disciplined police agent at the service of the Zionist state and a friend of US imperialism and the EU. The corrupt PA leadership and the Palestinian bourgeoisie will not hesitate to continue making juicy deals with Israeli capitalists, who will need abundant cheap Palestinian labour, among other things, for the construction of illegal settlements. It will also once again receive a significant injection of resources from Washington and Brussels, which will buy its political will and submission.
The atrocious destruction of Gaza and the real weakening of Hamas, which has lost a very important part of its militia forces and its political influence, even though some believe it has been strengthened, facilitate this process in the short term, despite the discredit among the Palestinian population of the PA. Decisive steps have also been taken in this direction under the sponsorship of China with the signing in Beijing last July of a national unity agreement signed by Al Fatah, Hamas and the other Palestinian factions, including the PFLP. According to the head of Chinese diplomacy, Wang Yi, the pact provides for the creation of an “interim government of national reconciliation.”[8]
Hamas and the liberation struggle of the Palestinian people. For an internationalist and socialist alternative!
In some sectors of the left, there is still a persistent denial of the imperialist character of the bloc led by China, while all hopes for Palestinian liberation are placed on the diplomatic moves of Beijing, Moscow or Tehran. In short, class struggle and revolutionary politics are replaced by the illusion that capitalist powers, facing US imperialism in the battle for world supremacy, will become active allies of the cause.
But we must be specific and not be dazzled by a mirage. The state capitalist regime that governs China, or that of Putin in Russia, or that of the mullahs in Tehran, have nothing to do with socialism or communism. They do not carry out revolutionary foreign action, nor do they encourage internationalist solidarity. They are guided by the defense of the interests of their monopolies and act according to the objectives set by their ruling classes. In practice, they have only spoken nice words and presented motions at the UN. But China has not broken off commercial or diplomatic relations with the Zionist state, of which it is its second trading partner after the United States[9], and has maintained its significant investments in the ports of Haifa or Ashdod, in addition to its extensive business collaborations, especially in the fields of technology and cybersecurity[10].
As revolutionary communists we have to say clearly that these powers are not the solution to the oppression of the Palestinian people, and they have made this clear in these months of genocide. The true and only allies of the Palestinian cause are the millions of workers and youth who have raised an internationalist solidarity movement that has shaken the world.
The Palestinian people, tortured to unbearable limits, have deep-rooted revolutionary traditions and an impressive capacity for resistance. Today they suffer very severely from the barbarity of Zionist colonialism and American imperialism, the complicity of the "democratic" European powers and of the whole social democracy in this massacre, in addition to the complete abandonment of the corrupt and degenerate Arab governments and of so-called international justice.
There has been resistance and there will be resistance, and thousands of young Palestinians have legitimately taken up arms and will take up arms now and in the future, to confront their oppressors. But the national liberation struggle requires not only arms, but above all a genuine revolutionary programme that unites the oppressed in their battle to radically transform their living conditions, and consequently, society.
The barbarism we have seen in Gaza is not new. It is the same barbarism that devastated Europe during the Second World War, with indescribable massacres in all the countries occupied by the Nazis. It is the same barbarism that the people of China, Korea, Algeria, or Vietnam suffered firsthand. But in these cases, the revolutionary force of the working class and the oppressed, raising the banner of internationalism and socialism, and despite all the distortions brought about by Stalinism in the USSR, made it possible to defeat the criminal forces of Nazi Germany or French and American imperialism.
Lessons must be drawn from everything that has happened. Despite having genuine fighters in their ranks, both Hamas and Hezbollah are forces led by reactionary fundamentalists, linked to a corrupt and tyrannical regime like that of the mullahs of Iran, which has not hesitated to savagely repress the uprisings of its own working class, of women for their fundamental democratic rights, or of national minorities like the Kurds. Hence, the scant echo that demonstrations of solidarity with Palestine have had within Iran, viewed with distrust by sectors of the masses who suffer day after day the capitalist tyranny of clerics, businessmen and the military.
The Iranian regime's restraint in the face of the Zionist genocide in Gaza is another good reflection of its anti-imperialist charade, and how, above all, the business of its ruling elite comes first. It is clear that China, which has become a crucial trading partner for Iran, has determined this restraint. But the Iranian capitalists and the clerical mafia fear a war with Israel like the plague, knowing that it would cause extraordinary destabilization given the growing poverty and inequality in society. The fall of the Al-Assad regime has been a serious warning in this regard.
The Palestinian cause has been a revolutionary beacon in the Arab world. This was the case in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, especially with the outbreak of the First Intifada. This revolutionary power put many of the Arab governments in the region on the ropes and placed the task of socialist revolution on the agenda. However, all this potential to defeat Zionism was squandered by the PLO leadership with the Oslo Accords and the utopian and reactionary idea of a capitalist Palestinian state that would coexist in harmony with the State of Israel. Today this “realistic” path, which many on the left supported and continue to support, has become an obvious dead end with monstrous consequences.
The terrible events of these months in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and the Middle East may fill the imperialists and their Zionist pawns with confidence. But it is impossible for them to end the Palestinian struggle. On the contrary. With their criminal intervention they have shaken the conscience of millions of young people who are seeking radical answers to this barbarity.
However much they may have devastated Gaza, it is impossible for them to avoid new revolutionary crises in Palestine and the Middle East. Preparing for them, drawing the right lessons, is the task before us. Experience shows that there are no intermediate solutions. Either the domination of Zionism and colonialism, or the socialist revolution by putting an end to the State of Israel - that is, by expropriating its bourgeoisie - and by proposing the overthrow of the Arab capitalist governments and the Palestinian bourgeoisie, linked by thousands of businesses to Zionism and Western imperialism.
This is the key to ending national, class and gender oppression and building a Socialist Federation of the Middle East where all people can live in peace, equality and freedom from imperialist barbarism.
Notes:
[1] Forget Trump — agreeing to a ceasefire was Netanyahu’s own calculation
[2] As Israelis Celebrate the Hostage Deal, Netanyahu's Government Is Overthrowing the Courts
[3] Interpretación de la tregua israelo-palestina
[4] A ceasefire won’t stop Israel’s genocidal agenda
[5] Israel traslada a Jenin las prácticas genocidas que aplicó en Gaza
[6] Racing Against the Resumption of War: Why Qatar and Egypt Want to Start Rebuilding Gaza Now
[8] Hamás y Fatah firman en Pekín un acuerdo para crear un "Gobierno de unidad nacional"
[9] En 2024 las importaciones israelíes de China alcanzaron los 13.530 millones de dólares, un 19,8% más que en 2023, siendo por quinto año consecutivo la principal fuente de importaciones de Israel. China remains Israel’s top source of imports in 2024
[10] China-Israel innovation park marks 10th anniversary in Tel Aviv
