A revolutionary Marxist analysis
For the communist and anti-imperialist left, it is imperative to address President Trump's threats of military intervention in Iran from an internationalist and class-based perspective. That is why we categorically reject any attack by Washington, because its objectives are not to restore democracy or grant freedom to the Iranian people.
The Zionist genocide in Gaza, or the kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro, expose this ridiculous demagoguery that hides the predatory interests of Western imperialism and its big monopolies in seizing Iranian oil and establishing a puppet regime.
At the same time, this rejection of the criminal plans of US imperialism must be accompanied by the denunciation and struggle against the reactionary theocratic regime of the mullahs. To think that the fundamentalist dictatorship in Tehran is an ally of the working class in the struggle against imperialism is ridiculous. The massacre perpetrated in recent weeks against thousands of workers and young people, along with the oppression of women and oppressed nationalities, makes clear the reactionary nature of this regime, which was born in 1979 with the support of Western capitalists to prevent the triumph of the socialist revolution[1].
An internationalist and anti-imperialist class position
Left-wing anti-imperialist organizations with a presence in Iran have denounced the scale of this repression: police forces opening fire on and machine-gunning defenseless protesters may have caused between 10,000 and 20,000 casualties. Even Iran’s leader himself, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, spoke of “thousands of deaths”.
Trump and his puppets in the Iranian bourgeois opposition are despicably exploiting this massacre for their own benefit. The same individuals who have ordered the murder of Palestinian people with phosphorus bombs, planned a lethal famine that is affecting tens of thousands of children, destroyed healthcare infrastructure and 90% of homes, razing everything that makes human life possible, and now seek to crown this Holocaust with a definitive ethnic cleansing, now present themselves as champions of the fight against dictatorship.
But their support for Netanyahu's Nazi-Zionist regime is unconditional, and within the US they are organizing a 21st-century Gestapo to combat the internal enemy, the immigrant working class, and the youth and workers who have decided to raise a mass resistance!
Maintaining a firm anti-imperialist position has nothing to do with whitewashing Islamic fundamentalism, the Iranian bourgeoisie, and their sponsors in the other imperialist bloc led by Russia and China.
The policy of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” has shown its disastrous consequences everywhere. The most recent cases are Gaza and the West Bank, with the criminal abandonment of the Palestinian people by the Chinese and Russian imperialists, and by the Iranian regime itself, in whom the defenders of these policies had placed their hopes. The same is true of Venezuela, where Beijing and Moscow did not hesitate to let Maduro fall, one of their main allies, and with whom they had trade and “strategic military defense” agreements.
The supposed “friends of oppressed peoples”
Chinese investments in Iran, which have grown to tens of billions of dollars in recent years, only benefit the ruling class. The crisis of Iranian capitalism has exponentially increased inequality and poverty, sparking mass uprisings and movements over the past 15 years that have been violently suppressed by the religious, bureaucratic, and military caste that dominates the state apparatus and is completely fused with the capitalists.
But what happened this January represented a qualitative leap. Over the past year, the Iranian government implemented savage budget and social cuts, including key subsidies for subsistence, and increased taxes on small and medium-sized traders. Added to this is hyperinflation, that has doubled or tripled the prices of essential goods while a handful of capitalists are making a fortune out of speculation.
The population also endures a chronic energy crisis due to disinvestment in electrical infrastructure, with constant blackouts that hit productive capacity and daily life; a brutal housing crisis that forces millions to live in subhuman conditions; and an endemic drought exacerbated by the climate crisis.
The 67% increase in the price of gasoline sparked widespread unrest. The mobilization of bazaar merchants and their families, a pillar of the regime since 1979, spurred young people and the working class into action, unleashing a widespread rebellion.
To crush it, the regime has relied on the army and police, and especially on the self-proclaimed “Revolutionary Guard.” This shock force, which some portray as part of the so-called “axis of resistance,” already played a counterrevolutionary role during the 1979 revolution, brutally repressing the anti-capitalist left and the workers' vanguard.
Since then, the officers of this Guard and the Army have become a key sector of the ruling class, controlling 20 to 40% of the economy, including one of the main construction companies—responsible for much of the regime's construction projects—and several large companies linked to oil exports and other Chinese investments. On this basis, they maintain hundreds of thousands of armed militiamen and a surveillance network that they use to terrorize the population and crush any source of discontent.
But the crisis of Iranian capitalism has also been eroding its base. Although they have been able to drown recent demonstrations in blood, such brutal repression has had an impact on the consciousness of the masses, marking a turning point. The regime has emerged from these events seriously damaged. Its reactionary and criminal character has been revealed to millions around the world, starting with Arab and Muslim countries.
Obviously, we revolutionary communists totally reject the maneuvers of sectors of the Iranian bourgeoisie in exile, the supporters of the restoration of the Shah, who in practice act as political agents of Washington. The heroic struggle of the Iranian masses has once again raised the question of power and the need for a revolutionary overthrow of the fundamentalist regime to make way for a socialist Iran.
Trump ups the ante
Seeing this brutal internal crisis, Trump has resumed the offensive he launched alongside Netanyahu in June 2025.
At that time, they attempted to force regime change in Tehran through 12 days of bombing, but China and Russia supplied missiles and advanced technology to Tehran, exposing the “impregnable” Zionist defense system.
Trump himself received an unequivocal deterrent message, with an Iranian attack on the main US regional military base in Qatar that caused no casualties but demonstrated the capacity to do so. This was compounded by Tehran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 15% of world trade passes. The US and Israel were forced to back down. But, as we explained at the time[2], nothing had been resolved and new clashes and attacks were inevitable.
According to sources close to Trump's inner circle, there was a plan on the table to attack Iran in January[3]. Allies such as the reactionary monarchies of the Persian Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates), Egypt, Turkey, Netanyahu himself, and even the CIA and a sector of the US ruling class, pressed for it to be postponed.
They feared that an attack of the magnitude being considered could lead to a prolonged and costly war, with the political consequences that that could bring to the Middle East and the US itself[4].
But US imperialism has kept all options open and, emboldened by its recent victories in Venezuela, by its demands on Greenland without any opposition from the EU, and by the hesitations and doubts of its rivals, it has continued to escalate its threats, sending a war fleet to Iran, which, according to various analysts, has a much greater strike capability than that deployed to surround Venezuela. Added to this are the 40,000 soldiers that the US already has in various countries in the Middle East.
This pressure has caused the Iranian government to back down from its defiant position and accept several of Washington's conditions on Iran's nuclear program. The underlying goal is to shore up and consolidate the advances that US imperialism has made in the Middle East and to weaken Tehran, and indirectly China and Russia, as much as possible.
After the first round of negotiations in Oman, Trump announced a possible easing of sanctions on the Iranian regime in exchange for various concessions, without withdrawing his threats of attack if Tehran does not continue to yield.
Uncertain prospects
Events in Iran have also exposed the Chinese and Russian imperialists, who have given their approval to the repression. Although China and Russia do not bear the burden of Washington's history of crimes, they are demonstrating time and again that they only act to preserve the profits of their monopolies and their geostrategic interests.
In 2021, Beijing signed a cooperation agreement with Tehran that provides for investments of $400 billion over 25 years. In exchange, Iran sells its oil at a discount, and already accounts for 16% of China's crude oil imports, making it its third largest supplier after Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Beijing's planned investments in Iran are not limited to the oil sector and cover virtually all sectors: energy, infrastructure, transport, telecommunications, banking, etc. However, from 2021 to 2023, the investments made barely reached 1%, and in 2024 and 2025 they have continued to trickle in.
According to Iranian government data, non-oil trade between the two countries has not been cut off, as was the case with Venezuela since 2018, but has even continued to grow, reaching $34.1 billion in the last Iranian year, which ended on March 20, 2025[5].
But the low level of Chinese investment in Iran and the slowdown in trade contrasts sharply with the rapid increase in Beijing's investment and trade with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Egypt, and even Israel, and with the growing influence that the Gulf monarchies and Pakistan have acquired in the new Silk Road projects.
Faced with Trump's global offensive and US imperialism, China and Russia have opted, at least for the moment, to concentrate on their closest areas of influence: Ukraine, Taiwan, and the South China Sea, avoiding direct confrontation in areas they do not consider vital in the short term, betting that Beijing's economic superiority will guarantee their dominance in the medium term.
But it is a risky strategy. Awareness of one's own strength and the determination to use it to the end is a first-order factor in both class struggle and inter-imperialist conflict. Trump and US imperialism are crossing lines that they had not dared to cross until now. And they are making significant progress.
An Iran under US control, or forced to make significant concessions, would be a blow to the prestige and authority of China and Russia greater than that inflicted on Venezuela and would encourage Washington to increase its offensive with redoubled forces.
Of course, it is impossible to outline a fixed perspective about what will happen, but the imperialist struggle between the blocs led by the US and China and Russia is going to intensify considerably, with dire consequences for the peoples of the world. Any explicit or implicit agreement they reach to temporarily divide areas of influence will be signed on the blood and oppression of millions and will be the prelude, sooner rather than later, to new clashes and wars.
Notes (all in Spanish):
[1] La represión salvaje no frena el levantamiento contra el régimen de los Mulás
[2] Trump incendia Oriente Medio con su ataque a Irán, y ahora quiere una paz podrida
[3] Trump aumenta la presión contra Irán mientras sopesa una acción militar
[4] Irán gana tiempo para evitar un ataque de Estados Unidos
[5] Comercio no petrolero entre Irán y China alcanza los 34.100 millones de dólares
